Melbourne Victory 1-1 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒11:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
34%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.62
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.16
6+ Goals
9%
10.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.62 — our 29% vs market 21.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.61
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
15%
4.55
X/2 EV+ ✗
15%
7.82
X/X
11%
5.04
2/1
8%
23.85
2/2
11%
5.59
2/X
7%
13.8
Value flag · X/2 at 7.82 — our 15% vs market 9.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-5.6pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.4pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+8.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.4pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 29%
-22% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
1.51/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.82
-42% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 78%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
20.4 Crosses 19.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Melbourne City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.71 xG 1.08
44% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
320 Passes 450
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
34 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.10.2024 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-3 HT 0-3 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
05.05.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-1 HT 0-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
06.04.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 2-1 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
17.02.2024 Melbourne City Melbourne City 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
23.12.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
05.04.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-1 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory
1-1
AWAY Melbourne City
2.74 xG 1.25
59% Ball Possession 41%
23 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 3
345 Passes 225
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
36 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Melbourne Victory had 59% of the ball to Melbourne City's 41%, shots finished 23-11, expected goals 2.74 to 1.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Melbourne Victory and 0.83 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City?

Melbourne Victory 1-1 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory 43%, draw 23%, Melbourne City 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Melbourne Victory), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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