Melbourne Victory 1-1 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 5 May 2024

Melbourne Victory
1-1 HT 0-1
Melbourne City
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
32%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.15
6+ Goals
11%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.94 — our 26% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.64
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
15%
5.73
X/2
10%
5.66
X/X
14%
4.96
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
16%
3.58
2/X
6%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
37%
+5.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-4.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.4pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 40%
+5% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -18%
1.62/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.78
+4% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
359 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 79%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
16.9 Crosses 19.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Melbourne City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.78 xG 1.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
323 Passes 430
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.04.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 2-1 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
17.02.2024 Melbourne City Melbourne City 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
23.12.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
05.04.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-1 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
18.02.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 3-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
22.10.2022 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-2 HT 0-2 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS

Melbourne Victory 1-1 Melbourne City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory
1-1
AWAY Melbourne City
1.41 xG 2.86
35% Ball Possession 65%
16 Total Shots 30
5 Shots on Target 10
7 Corners 14
309 Passes 675
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
34 Box Touches 48
24 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Melbourne Victory had 35% of the ball to Melbourne City's 65%, shots finished 16-30, expected goals 1.41 to 2.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Melbourne Victory and 1.17 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City?

Melbourne Victory 1-1 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory 42%, draw 26%, Melbourne City 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Melbourne Victory), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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