Melbourne Victory 2-1 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.61
No
43%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.79
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
27%
3.22
6+ Goals
12%
11.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.4
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
14%
5.45
X/2
14%
6.03
X/X
17%
4.8
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
10%
3.92
2/X
5%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
-0.1pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.0pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.4pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -11%
1.60/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.69
-8% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
386 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 82%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
17.7 Crosses 18.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Melbourne City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.60 xG 0.90
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
326 Passes 450
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.02.2024 Melbourne City Melbourne City 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
23.12.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
05.04.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-1 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
18.02.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 3-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
22.10.2022 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-2 HT 0-2 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
09.04.2022 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 3-0 HT 3-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory
2-1
AWAY Melbourne City
2.92 xG 0.84
46% Ball Possession 54%
22 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 7
282 Passes 333
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
55 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory edged past Melbourne City 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Melbourne Victory found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Melbourne Victory had 46% of the ball to Melbourne City's 54%, shots finished 22-8, expected goals 2.92 to 0.84 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Melbourne Victory's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Melbourne Victory and 1.00 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City?

Melbourne Victory 2-1 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory 39%, draw 29%, Melbourne City 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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