Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 6 Apr 2024

Central Coast Mariners
2-1 HT 0-0
Wellington Phoenix
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒09:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
31%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.86
Over 2.5
55%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.82
No
46%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.26
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
26%
3.62
6+ Goals
11%
14.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.38
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.95
X/1
10%
4.0
X/2
16%
8.29
X/X
12%
5.01
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
24.0
2/2
9%
6.47
2/X
6%
15.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 11% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-6.6pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.6pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
50%
-5.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
50%
+5.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.6pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Central Coast Mariners v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +13%
1.98/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.89
+16% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
392 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
36.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
17.0 Crosses 15.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Central Coast Mariners
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.73 xG 1.04
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
386 Passes 429
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.02.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 0-0 HT 0-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
24.02.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-1 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
22.01.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-1 HT 2-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
16.10.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-2 HT 0-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
17.04.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 0-4 HT 0-1 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
05.04.2022 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 5-0 HT 2-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS

Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Central Coast Mariners
2-1
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.43 xG 0.90
62% Ball Possession 38%
23 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
547 Passes 306
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
35 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Central Coast Mariners nicked a narrow win over Wellington Phoenix 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Central Coast Mariners as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Central Coast Mariners had 62% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 38%, shots finished 23-9, expected goals 1.43 to 0.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Central Coast Mariners had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Central Coast Mariners and 0.83 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix?

Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Central Coast Mariners win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Central Coast Mariners 46%, draw 23%, Wellington Phoenix 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Central Coast Mariners), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Central Coast Mariners) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVUS More Australia - A-League
6 Apr 2024
07:30 Western United vs Macarthur Analysis →
11:45 Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City Analysis →