Melbourne City 0-0 Melbourne Victory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
33%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.53
No
45%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.37
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
2.9
6+ Goals
14%
8.56
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.08
1/2
6%
23.3
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
16%
6.39
X/2
10%
5.14
X/X
12%
5.26
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
28.0
2/2
16%
3.01
2/X
7%
12.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.0 — our 8% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
34%
+7.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
33%
Away Win
41%
-8.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
61%
-6.2pp
45%
BTTS No
39%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 45%
+11% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -8%
1.35/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.50
-32% / +76% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 80%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
25.6 Crosses 19.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne City
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Melbourne Victory
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.99 xG 1.57
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
474 Passes 308
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.12.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
05.04.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-1 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
18.02.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 3-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
22.10.2022 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-2 HT 0-2 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
09.04.2022 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 3-0 HT 3-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
19.03.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-1 HT 1-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne City
0-0
AWAY Melbourne Victory
0.34 xG 1.41
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
354 Passes 413
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
11 Box Touches 31
6 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne City at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Melbourne City had 46% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 54%, shots finished 6-17, expected goals 0.34 to 1.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Melbourne City and 1.33 for Melbourne Victory.

What was the final score of Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory?

Melbourne City 0-0 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City 42%, draw 26%, Melbourne Victory 33%. The final score 0-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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