Sydney 2-1 Adelaide United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
3.46
Over 2.5
60%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.38
No
39%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
8.9
2-3 Goals
36%
2.4
4-5 Goals
29%
2.32
6+ Goals
15%
3.74
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.88
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X EV+ ✗
13%
14.45
X/1
14%
4.4
X/2
9%
11.0
X/X
7%
8.0
2/1
7%
16.75
2/2
8%
6.42
2/X
6%
14.55
Value flag · 1/X at 14.45 — our 13% vs market 4.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
59%
-9.2pp
26%
Draw
20%
+6.1pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
25%
+14.3pp
60%
Over 2.5
75%
-14.3pp
61%
BTTS Yes
68%
-7.9pp
39%
BTTS No
32%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sydney EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 24%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -4%
2.11/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.89
-7% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
404 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 80%
37.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
20.6 Crosses 20.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sydney
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Adelaide United
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.99 xG 1.47
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
402 Passes 337
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
33 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.01.2024 Adelaide United Adelaide United 4-3 HT 3-1 Sydney Sydney AVUS
11.11.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-5 HT 0-4 Sydney Sydney AVUS
07.04.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-1 HT 0-0 Sydney Sydney AVUS
23.10.2022 Sydney Sydney 2-2 HT 0-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
12.04.2022 Sydney Sydney 2-3 HT 1-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
04.02.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-2 HT 1-1 Sydney Sydney AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sydney
2-1
AWAY Adelaide United
2.02 xG 1.16
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
277 Passes 342
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
39 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sydney vs Adelaide United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sydney squeezed past Adelaide United 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sydney as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

On the day, Sydney had 46% of the ball to Adelaide United's 54%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 2.02 to 1.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Sydney and 2.00 for Adelaide United.

What was the final score of Sydney vs Adelaide United?

Sydney 2-1 Adelaide United in the Australia - A-League on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sydney vs Adelaide United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sydney win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sydney 50%, draw 26%, Adelaide United 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sydney), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sydney) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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