Melbourne City 1-3 Melbourne Victory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒11:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.57
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
33%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.64
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.32
6+ Goals
10%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 27% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.91
1/2
7%
27.0
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
12%
5.97
X/2
14%
5.48
X/X
14%
4.66
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
12%
3.46
2/X
9%
12.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+1.8pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.5pp
33%
Away Win
37%
-4.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.7pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 40%
+10% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.12/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.43
-44% / +120% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +30%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
355 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 81%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
21.2 Crosses 19.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne City
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Melbourne Victory
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.14 xG 1.73
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
468 Passes 307
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 30
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
05.05.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-1 HT 0-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
06.04.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 2-1 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
17.02.2024 Melbourne City Melbourne City 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
23.12.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
05.04.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-1 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
18.02.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 3-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne City
1-3
AWAY Melbourne Victory
1.53 xG 1.71
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 2
417 Passes 277
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 35
30 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory saw off Melbourne City 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 30% / 33% — and on the day Melbourne Victory made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Melbourne City had 59% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 41%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.53 to 1.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Melbourne City and 1.17 for Melbourne Victory.

What was the final score of Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory?

Melbourne City 1-3 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City 37%, draw 30%, Melbourne Victory 33%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Melbourne City), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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