Macarthur 1-3 Western Sydney Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒12:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.08
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
50%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
3.46
Over 2.5
56%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.32
No
39%
3.08
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
8.47
2-3 Goals
39%
2.4
4-5 Goals
24%
2.34
6+ Goals
17%
3.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.85
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
17.6
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
7%
8.52
X/2
18%
5.46
X/X
8%
7.36
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
23%
2.44
2/X
8%
12.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 17.6 — our 8% vs market 3.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
29%
-1.5pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.4pp
50%
Away Win
49%
+1.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
25%
+19.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
75%
-19.0pp
61%
BTTS Yes
72%
-10.7pp
39%
BTTS No
28%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers EU Bookmakers 53%
+1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.40/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/1.42
+1% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -16%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 406 · 82%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.5
21.2 Crosses 20.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.87 xG 1.79
49% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
364 Passes 405
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
31 Box Touches 30
25 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.02.2025 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 2-1 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
01.01.2025 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 2-3 HT 1-3 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
01.04.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 1-3 HT 0-0 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
04.02.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 4-3 HT 3-3 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
01.01.2024 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 3-1 HT 2-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
08.04.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 2-2 HT 0-1 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
1-3
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers
0.96 xG 1.53
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
361 Passes 336
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 22
25 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western Sydney Wanderers got the better of Macarthur 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Western Sydney Wanderers as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

On the day, Macarthur had 51% of the ball to Western Sydney Wanderers's 49%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.96 to 1.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Western Sydney Wanderers led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Macarthur and 2.50 for Western Sydney Wanderers.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers?

Macarthur 1-3 Western Sydney Wanderers in the Australia - A-League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Western Sydney Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 27%, draw 23%, Western Sydney Wanderers 50%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Western Sydney Wanderers), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Western Sydney Wanderers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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3 May 2025
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