Western Sydney Wanderers 2-3 Macarthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 1 Jan 2025

📅01/01/2025 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.43
No
44%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.24
2-3 Goals
37%
1.96
4-5 Goals
27%
2.6
6+ Goals
16%
6.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.02
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
26.5
1/X
9%
12.75
X/1
11%
5.44
X/2
16%
6.62
X/X
8%
5.94
2/1
7%
22.55
2/2
12%
3.96
2/X
6%
12.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.5 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.3pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.9pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+3.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
66%
-9.4pp
44%
BTTS No
34%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Western Sydney Wanderers EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Macarthur EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -15%
1.95/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.63
+38% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
366 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 83%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
17.4 Crosses 19.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Western Sydney Wanderers
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Macarthur
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.93 xG 1.23
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
432 Passes 374
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
31 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.04.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 1-3 HT 0-0 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
04.02.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 4-3 HT 3-3 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
01.01.2024 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 3-1 HT 2-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
08.04.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 2-2 HT 0-1 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
25.02.2023 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 4-0 HT 2-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
01.01.2023 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 4-0 HT 2-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Western Sydney Wanderers
2-3
AWAY Macarthur
1.40 xG 2.92
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 2
463 Passes 347
89% Pass Accuracy 85%
37 Box Touches 34
30 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Western Sydney Wanderers vs Macarthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur edged past Western Sydney Wanderers 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 41% / 23% / 36% — and on the day Macarthur made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Western Sydney Wanderers had 56% of the ball to Macarthur's 44%, shots finished 20-17, expected goals 1.40 to 2.92 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Macarthur's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Western Sydney Wanderers had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Western Sydney Wanderers and 1.33 for Macarthur.

What was the final score of Western Sydney Wanderers vs Macarthur?

Western Sydney Wanderers 2-3 Macarthur in the Australia - A-League on 01/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Western Sydney Wanderers vs Macarthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Western Sydney Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Western Sydney Wanderers 41%, draw 23%, Macarthur 36%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Western Sydney Wanderers) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Western Sydney Wanderers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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AVUS More Australia - A-League
1 Jan 2025
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