Gareji 2-1 Samgurali — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.67
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
43%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.64
Over 2.5
39%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
6%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
27%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
34%
-6.9pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.0pp
43%
Away Win
38%
+4.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
57%
+4.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
43%
-4.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.0pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gareji EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Samgurali EU Bookmakers 42%
-32% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
0.00/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.20
-100% / +115% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gareji
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Samgurali
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
8 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 0
11.03.2025 Samgurali Samgurali 3-1 HT 3-1 Gareji Gareji GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gareji
2-1
AWAY Samgurali
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Gareji vs Samgurali
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gareji nicked a narrow win over Samgurali 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Samgurali at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gareji had 41% of the ball to Samgurali's 59%, shots finished 10-20.

What was the final score of Gareji vs Samgurali?

Gareji 2-1 Samgurali in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gareji vs Samgurali?

Before kick-off our model rated an Samgurali win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Gareji 27%, draw 30%, Samgurali 43%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Samgurali) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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