Sporting Gijon 1-2 Ceuta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 3 May 2026

Sporting Gijon
1-2 HT 1-2
Ceuta
📅03/05/2026 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

Sporting Gijon vs Ceuta Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.53
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.15
Over 2.5
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.91
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
2.97
6+ Goals
11%
9.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.87
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
5%
15.55
X/1 EV+ ✗
28%
4.01
X/2
5%
11.45
X/X
9%
6.07
2/1
9%
21.0
2/2
8%
9.15
2/X
5%
17.55
Value flag · X/1 at 4.01 — our 28% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
61%
-0.2pp
19%
Draw
21%
-2.1pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting Gijon v Ceuta — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Gijon EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceuta EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.71/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/2.44
-12% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -38%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
317 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 75%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
20.3 Crosses 15.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Sporting Gijon vs Ceuta Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Gijon
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Ceuta
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.86 xG 0.93
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 3
203 Passes 405
67% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 21
8 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
23.08.2025 Ceuta Ceuta 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2

Sporting Gijon 1-2 Ceuta — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Gijon
1-2
AWAY Ceuta
1.23 xG 1.30
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 2
348 Passes 460
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 26
24 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Gijon vs Ceuta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceuta edged past Sporting Gijon 2-1 away from home.

This one beat our numbers. Sporting Gijon carried 61% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sporting Gijon had 46% of the ball to Ceuta's 54%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 1.23 to 1.30.

What was the final score of Sporting Gijon vs Ceuta?

Sporting Gijon 1-2 Ceuta in the Spain - 2nd Division on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Gijon vs Ceuta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Gijon win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Sporting Gijon 61%, draw 19%, Ceuta 20%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sporting Gijon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Gijon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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