Merida AD 0-2 Lugo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.61
2-3 Goals
41%
1.7
4-5 Goals
18%
3.97
6+ Goals
9%
19.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.61 — our 32% vs market 30.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-0.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.7pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Merida AD EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugo EU Bookmakers 32%
+8% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -11%
1.51/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.06
+10% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +12%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
291 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Merida AD
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Lugo
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.01.2026 Lugo Lugo 1-0 HT 1-0 Merida AD Merida AD İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Merida AD
0-2
AWAY Lugo
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Merida AD vs Lugo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugo saw off Merida AD 2-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Merida AD at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Merida AD had 58% of the ball to Lugo's 42%, shots finished 15-5.

What was the final score of Merida AD vs Lugo?

Merida AD 0-2 Lugo in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Merida AD vs Lugo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Merida AD win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Merida AD 44%, draw 26%, Lugo 29%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Merida AD) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Merida AD) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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