Athletic Bilbao II 2-2 Ourense CF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.05
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.82
2-3 Goals
39%
1.7
4-5 Goals
20%
3.68
6+ Goals
11%
16.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 30% vs market 27.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
45%
+2.4pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.4pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+0.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.7pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao II EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Ourense CF EU Bookmakers 32%
-11% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.10/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.51
-20% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
268 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao II
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Ourense CF
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
57% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2025 Ourense CF Ourense CF 0-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao II Athletic Bilbao II İS3
20.04.2025 Ourense CF Ourense CF 1-2 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao II Athletic Bilbao II İS3
26.10.2024 Athletic Bilbao II Athletic Bilbao II 0-2 HT 0-2 Ourense CF Ourense CF İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao II
2-2
AWAY Ourense CF
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao II vs Ourense CF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao II and Ourense CF couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Athletic Bilbao II at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao II had 50% of the ball to Ourense CF's 50%, shots finished 12-10.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Athletic Bilbao II and 1.00 for Ourense CF.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao II vs Ourense CF?

Athletic Bilbao II 2-2 Ourense CF in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao II vs Ourense CF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao II win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao II 47%, draw 22%, Ourense CF 30%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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