Lugo 1-0 Merida AD — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 3 Jan 2026

Lugo
1-0 HT 1-0
Merida AD
📅03/01/2026 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division B – 2025/2026

Lugo vs Merida AD Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.59
Over 2.5
44%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.41
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.55
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
14%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
43%
+1.1pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.0pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.3pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lugo v Merida AD — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugo EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Merida AD EU Bookmakers 31%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +4%
1.30/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.43
-5% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
312 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
10.0 Crosses –
3.2 Yellow Cards 3.1

Lugo 1-0 Merida AD — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugo
1-0
AWAY Merida AD
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lugo vs Merida AD
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugo squeezed past Merida AD 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lugo as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lugo had 56% of the ball to Merida AD's 44%, shots finished 8-9.

What was the final score of Lugo vs Merida AD?

Lugo 1-0 Merida AD in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugo vs Merida AD?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugo win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Lugo 44%, draw 26%, Merida AD 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lugo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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