Ourense CF 2-1 Real Aviles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 3 Jan 2026

📅03/01/2026 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.52
Over 2.5
44%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.22
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
5.06
6+ Goals
9%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.8pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.6pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
62%
-6.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
38%
+6.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.6pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ourense CF EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Aviles EU Bookmakers 31%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.53/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/1.57
+13% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +87% / -19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
264 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ourense CF
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Real Aviles
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.01.2024 Ourense CF Ourense CF 2-0 HT 1-0 Real Aviles Real Aviles İS4
22.04.2023 Real Aviles Real Aviles 0-3 HT 0-1 Ourense CF Ourense CF İS4
11.12.2022 Ourense CF Ourense CF 2-0 HT 1-0 Real Aviles Real Aviles İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ourense CF
2-1
AWAY Real Aviles
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ourense CF vs Real Aviles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ourense CF nicked a narrow win over Real Aviles 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ourense CF as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ourense CF had 61% of the ball to Real Aviles's 39%, shots finished 18-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ourense CF had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Ourense CF and 0.00 for Real Aviles.

What was the final score of Ourense CF vs Real Aviles?

Ourense CF 2-1 Real Aviles in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ourense CF vs Real Aviles?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ourense CF win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Ourense CF 42%, draw 28%, Real Aviles 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ourense CF) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ourense CF) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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