Kasımpaşa 1-1 Kocaelispor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
35%
3.18
Away
19%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.57
2-3 Goals
36%
1.7
4-5 Goals
20%
4.04
6+ Goals
9%
19.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.57 — our 35% vs market 31.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
7%
X/X
21%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-1.8pp
35%
Draw
28%
+7.1pp
19%
Away Win
24%
-5.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.4pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Kocaelispor EU Bookmakers 28%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -26%
1.69/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/1.04
+4% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 78%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
24.7 Crosses 16.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kasımpaşa
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Kocaelispor
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.16 xG 0.81
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
146 Passes 370
65% Pass Accuracy 81%
8 Box Touches 18
9 Crosses 28
4 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2025 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 0-0 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
28.12.2021 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 5-3 HT 1-1 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor TÜK
01.11.2012 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 5-0 HT 4-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor TÜK
17.08.2008 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 2-4 HT 1-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa HAZ
28.12.2007 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-0 HT 1-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor SEV
25.02.2007 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 2-2 HT 1-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kasımpaşa
1-1
AWAY Kocaelispor
1.04 xG 0.67
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 5
358 Passes 212
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
11 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kasımpaşa vs Kocaelispor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kasımpaşa and Kocaelispor couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Kasımpaşa at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Kasımpaşa had 60% of the ball to Kocaelispor's 40%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 1.04 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kasımpaşa had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.17 for Kocaelispor.

What was the final score of Kasımpaşa vs Kocaelispor?

Kasımpaşa 1-1 Kocaelispor in the Turkey - Super League on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kasımpaşa vs Kocaelispor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kasımpaşa win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Kasımpaşa 46%, draw 35%, Kocaelispor 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Kasımpaşa), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kasımpaşa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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