Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Gençlerbirliği — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
27%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.67
Over 2.5
50%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.59
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
23%
4.2
6+ Goals
10%
21.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.43
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
19%
4.98
X/2
11%
5.91
X/X
13%
4.16
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
8%
4.46
2/X
6%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
41%
+5.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
27%
Away Win
31%
-4.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
56%
-5.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
44%
+5.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.4pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Gençlerbirliği EU Bookmakers 34%
+18% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -16%
1.69/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.64
+48% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
16.5 Crosses 14.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.59 xG 1.48
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
327 Passes 311
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2025 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 3-0 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
13.04.2025 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 HT 0-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
08.12.2024 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 1-0 HT 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
08.05.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 5-1 HT 2-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği TSL
15.01.2021 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 1-3 HT 0-2 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
1-0
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
0.58 xG 2.47
37% Ball Possession 63%
6 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 6
249 Passes 486
73% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 29
3 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Gençlerbirliği
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük squeezed past Gençlerbirliği 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fatih Karagümrük as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 37% of the ball to Gençlerbirliği's 63%, shots finished 6-13, expected goals 0.58 to 2.47 — the balance of chances actually favoured Gençlerbirliği.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.20 for Gençlerbirliği.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Gençlerbirliği?

Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Gençlerbirliği in the Turkey - Super League on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Gençlerbirliği?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fatih Karagümrük win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 46%, draw 27%, Gençlerbirliği 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) ✗ BTTS Yes
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