Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison Prediction — Model Probabilities
Sarasota Paradise v Forward Madison — Team-Based Signals
Sarasota Paradise 1-3 Forward Madison — Actual Match Statistics
Forward Madison put daylight between themselves and Sarasota Paradise 3-1 on the road. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
A gentle 44% lean on Sarasota Paradise didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time. For what it's worth, the market was even more convinced — 1.92, about 52% — so the upset beat the price as well as us. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.
The match data tells the story: Sarasota Paradise had 58% of the ball to Forward Madison's 42%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.73 to 1.94.
Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison Result & Final Score
Sarasota Paradise 1-3 Forward Madison in the USA - USL League 1 on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Sarasota Paradise win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sarasota Paradise 44%, draw 27%, Forward Madison 29%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sarasota Paradise) went the other way.