Nomme JK Kalju 4-2 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 3 Jul 2024

Nomme JK Kalju
4-2 HT 2-1
Parnu JK Vaprus
📅03/07/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Estonia - Premium League – 2024

Nomme JK Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.66
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
29%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.0
Over 2.5
43%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
56%
-13.5pp
29%
Draw
23%
+5.7pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
46%
+10.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
54%
-10.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.0pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nomme JK Kalju v Parnu JK Vaprus — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nomme JK Kalju EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 24%
+3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
2.39/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.18
+56% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +33%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
377 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Nomme JK Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nomme JK Kalju
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.03.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-2 HT 1-1 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju EST1
07.10.2023 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 1-1 HT 0-1 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
19.08.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 3-3 HT 0-2 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju EST1
06.06.2023 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 1-0 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
16.03.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-1 HT 0-1 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju EST1
16.09.2022 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 4-0 HT 2-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1

Nomme JK Kalju 4-2 Parnu JK Vaprus — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nomme JK Kalju
4-2
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
46% Ball Possession 54%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nomme JK Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nomme JK Kalju got the better of Parnu JK Vaprus 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nomme JK Kalju as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nomme JK Kalju had 46% of the ball to Parnu JK Vaprus's 54%, shots finished 18-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nomme JK Kalju had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Nomme JK Kalju and 1.00 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of Nomme JK Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Nomme JK Kalju 4-2 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 03/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nomme JK Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nomme JK Kalju win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Nomme JK Kalju 42%, draw 29%, Parnu JK Vaprus 28%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nomme JK Kalju) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nomme JK Kalju) ✗ Under 2.5
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