FK Tukums 2000 1-2 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 3 Jul 2024

📅03/07/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
37%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
Over 2.5
53%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+3.6pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.7pp
37%
Away Win
40%
-2.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.5pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 43%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -9%
1.50/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.29
-1% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
261 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 70%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.1
18.2 Crosses 19.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Tukums 2000
2W-1D-3L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.50 xG 1.85
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
289 Passes 241
73% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-1 HT 2-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
30.03.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-1 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
01.09.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 3-0 HT 2-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
26.06.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-1 HT 2-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
03.05.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-3 HT 2-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
12.03.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Tukums 2000
1-2
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
0.68 xG 1.95
71% Ball Possession 29%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 5
436 Passes 142
82% Pass Accuracy 65%
31 Box Touches 24
32 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FK Tukums 2000 vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils edged past FK Tukums 2000 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 37% — and on the day BFC Daugavpils made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, FK Tukums 2000 had 71% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 29%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 0.68 to 1.95 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold BFC Daugavpils's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for FK Tukums 2000 and 2.17 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of FK Tukums 2000 vs BFC Daugavpils?

FK Tukums 2000 1-2 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 03/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Tukums 2000 vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Tukums 2000 win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split FK Tukums 2000 38%, draw 25%, BFC Daugavpils 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FK Tukums 2000) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FK Tukums 2000) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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