Inverness CT 1-1 Dumbarton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.76
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.24
6+ Goals
11%
11.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 26% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.9pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.5pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.3pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Inverness CT EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Dumbarton EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +2%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
414 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Inverness CT
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Dumbarton
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
18.07.2023 Dumbarton Dumbarton 2-1 HT 1-0 Inverness CT Inverness CT İKLK
18.04.2018 Dumbarton Dumbarton 0-1 HT 0-0 Inverness CT Inverness CT İKCL
14.04.2018 Inverness CT Inverness CT 5-1 HT 2-1 Dumbarton Dumbarton İKCL
24.03.2018 Dumbarton Dumbarton 0-1 HT 0-0 Inverness CT Inverness CT İKCK
16.12.2017 Inverness CT Inverness CT 1-0 HT 1-0 Dumbarton Dumbarton İKCL
23.09.2017 Dumbarton Dumbarton 2-1 HT 0-1 Inverness CT Inverness CT İKCL
POST-MATCH Inverness CT vs Dumbarton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Inverness CT and Dumbarton shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Inverness CT at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Inverness CT had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Inverness CT and 0.83 for Dumbarton.

What was the final score of Inverness CT vs Dumbarton?

Inverness CT 1-1 Dumbarton in the Scotland - 1st Division on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Inverness CT vs Dumbarton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Inverness CT win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Inverness CT 48%, draw 24%, Dumbarton 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Inverness CT), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Inverness CT) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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