Stenhousemuir 2-1 Arbroath — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.47
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
47%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.75
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.25
6+ Goals
14%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.75 — our 27% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
26%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
36%
-5.8pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.0pp
47%
Away Win
38%
+9.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.5pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stenhousemuir EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Arbroath EU Bookmakers 42%
-5% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -5%
1.19/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/1.36
-23% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
323 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stenhousemuir
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Arbroath
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
09.03.2019 Arbroath Arbroath 0-2 HT 0-1 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir İK1
12.01.2019 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir 1-4 HT 1-2 Arbroath Arbroath İK1
01.12.2018 Arbroath Arbroath 5-2 HT 2-1 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir İK1
22.09.2018 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir 1-2 HT 1-0 Arbroath Arbroath İK1
05.04.2014 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir 2-2 HT 1-1 Arbroath Arbroath İK1
18.01.2014 Arbroath Arbroath 2-1 HT 1-1 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir İK1
POST-MATCH Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stenhousemuir nicked a narrow win over Arbroath 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Arbroath at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arbroath led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Stenhousemuir and 2.50 for Arbroath.

What was the final score of Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath?

Stenhousemuir 2-1 Arbroath in the Scotland - 1st Division on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arbroath win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Stenhousemuir 30%, draw 23%, Arbroath 47%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arbroath) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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