Perth Glory 5-4 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - FFA Cup, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
46%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.51
Over 2.5
62%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.43
No
45%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.49
2-3 Goals
36%
2.01
4-5 Goals
29%
2.66
6+ Goals
16%
6.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.64
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
22.7
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
7%
6.17
X/2
11%
5.5
X/X
12%
6.1
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
27%
3.12
2/X
7%
13.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.7 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
36%
-7.9pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.9pp
46%
Away Win
40%
+6.1pp
38%
Under 2.5
36%
+1.8pp
62%
Over 2.5
64%
-1.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
66%
-10.4pp
45%
BTTS No
34%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 45%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -50% / -50%
0.91/1.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.79
-90% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -48%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 79%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
22.0 Crosses 24.0
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Perth Glory
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Melbourne City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.33
1.28 xG 2.35
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
284 Passes 472
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 33
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.04.2024 Melbourne City Melbourne City 8-0 HT 5-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
02.02.2024 Perth Glory Perth Glory 4-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
08.12.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 1-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
11.02.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 2-4 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
05.11.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 4-0 HT 0-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
04.05.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 2-0 HT 1-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Perth Glory
5-4
AWAY Melbourne City
1.28 xG 1.33
43% Ball Possession 57%
21 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
422 Passes 591
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 26
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Perth Glory vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Perth Glory squeezed past Melbourne City 5-4. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne City at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Perth Glory had 43% of the ball to Melbourne City's 57%, shots finished 21-16, expected goals 1.28 to 1.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Perth Glory and 3.33 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Perth Glory vs Melbourne City?

Perth Glory 5-4 Melbourne City in the Australia - FFA Cup on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Perth Glory vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Perth Glory 28%, draw 25%, Melbourne City 46%. The final score 5-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Melbourne City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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