OH Leuven 3-1 Genk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 3 Aug 2024

OH Leuven
3-1 HT 2-0
Genk
📅03/08/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2024/2025

OH Leuven vs Genk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.91
Over 2.5
56%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.5
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
30%
3.41
6+ Goals
9%
12.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.41 — our 30% vs market 23.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.1
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X
9%
12.25
X/1
12%
6.17
X/2
17%
5.42
X/X
11%
4.47
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
30.5
2/2
14%
3.41
2/X
5%
12.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.5 — our 9% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.4pp
38%
Away Win
38%
+0.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-4.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+4.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.2pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

OH Leuven v Genk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME OH Leuven EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Genk EU Bookmakers 42%
+14% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +15%
1.57/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.47
+35% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
269 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 71%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
17.5 Crosses 17.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9

OH Leuven vs Genk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME OH Leuven
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Genk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.53 xG 2.24
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
270 Passes 367
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 34
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
31.01.2024 OH Leuven OH Leuven 2-1 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
12.11.2023 Genk Genk 3-1 HT 1-0 OH Leuven OH Leuven BEL
02.04.2023 Genk Genk 2-1 HT 1-0 OH Leuven OH Leuven BEL
15.10.2022 OH Leuven OH Leuven 0-1 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL
09.02.2022 OH Leuven OH Leuven 2-1 HT 1-1 Genk Genk BEL
14.08.2021 Genk Genk 4-0 HT 1-0 OH Leuven OH Leuven BEL

OH Leuven 3-1 Genk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME OH Leuven
3-1
AWAY Genk
1.33 xG 2.42
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 10
218 Passes 426
78% Pass Accuracy 89%
23 Box Touches 36
9 Crosses 34
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH OH Leuven vs Genk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

OH Leuven beat Genk 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; OH Leuven found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, OH Leuven had 36% of the ball to Genk's 64%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 1.33 to 2.42 — on chances, Genk could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for OH Leuven and 2.00 for Genk.

What was the final score of OH Leuven vs Genk?

OH Leuven 3-1 Genk in the Belgium - Pro League on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for OH Leuven vs Genk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split OH Leuven 36%, draw 26%, Genk 38%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Genk) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Genk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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