OH Leuven 2-1 Genk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 31 Jan 2024

OH Leuven
2-1 HT 0-0
Genk
📅31/01/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2023/2024

OH Leuven vs Genk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.5
Draw
30%
3.72
Away
37%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.23
Over 2.5
45%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.56
No
42%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.59
2-3 Goals
43%
1.89
4-5 Goals
22%
2.85
6+ Goals
9%
8.06
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.59 — our 26% vs market 16.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.13
1/2
9%
20.1
1/X
6%
14.3
X/1
16%
9.16
X/2
15%
4.29
X/X
11%
6.11
2/1
4%
34.0
2/2
14%
2.17
2/X
13%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
25%
+7.7pp
30%
Draw
23%
+7.2pp
37%
Away Win
52%
-14.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
41%
+14.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
59%
-14.2pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.0pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

OH Leuven v Genk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME OH Leuven EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Genk EU Bookmakers 56%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -8%
1.43/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/1.30
-16% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -13%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
293 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 78%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
14.6 Crosses 16.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7

OH Leuven vs Genk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME OH Leuven
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Genk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.51 xG 2.29
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
302 Passes 374
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 33
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Genk Genk 3-1 HT 1-0 OH Leuven OH Leuven BEL
02.04.2023 Genk Genk 2-1 HT 1-0 OH Leuven OH Leuven BEL
15.10.2022 OH Leuven OH Leuven 0-1 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL
09.02.2022 OH Leuven OH Leuven 2-1 HT 1-1 Genk Genk BEL
14.08.2021 Genk Genk 4-0 HT 1-0 OH Leuven OH Leuven BEL
05.04.2021 OH Leuven OH Leuven 2-3 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL

OH Leuven 2-1 Genk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME OH Leuven
2-1
AWAY Genk
1.51 xG 0.97
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
218 Passes 357
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 32
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH OH Leuven vs Genk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

OH Leuven nicked a narrow win over Genk 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 30% / 37%) promised a tight game; OH Leuven found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while under 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, OH Leuven had 42% of the ball to Genk's 58%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.51 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for OH Leuven and 2.33 for Genk.

What was the final score of OH Leuven vs Genk?

OH Leuven 2-1 Genk in the Belgium - Pro League on 31/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for OH Leuven vs Genk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split OH Leuven 32%, draw 30%, Genk 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Genk), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Genk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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