Libertad 2-2 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.94
Draw
33%
3.35
Away
32%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.75
No
58%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
14%
X/1
15%
X/2
5%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
30%
+4.6pp
33%
Draw
26%
+6.5pp
32%
Away Win
43%
-11.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
53%
-11.0pp
58%
BTTS No
47%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 48%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -37% / -37%
0.95/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.34
-37% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -24%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
254 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 78%
15.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
19.3 Crosses 18.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Mushuc Runa
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.04 xG 1.10
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
192 Passes 255
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 6
02.03.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-1 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad EKV1
02.09.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
09.04.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-1 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
2-2
AWAY Mushuc Runa
3.73 xG 2.84
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 21
6 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 8
222 Passes 140
70% Pass Accuracy 62%
24 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad and Mushuc Runa shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 33% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Libertad had 57% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 43%, shots finished 17-21, expected goals 3.73 to 2.84.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Mushuc Runa led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Libertad and 1.67 for Mushuc Runa.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Mushuc Runa?

Libertad 2-2 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Premier on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Libertad 35%, draw 33%, Mushuc Runa 32%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Libertad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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