FC Lahti 2-1 HJK Helsinki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.71
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
51%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.21
Over 2.5
55%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.42
2-3 Goals
42%
1.89
4-5 Goals
23%
2.93
6+ Goals
11%
8.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
8.53
1/2
7%
21.15
1/X
5%
16.35
X/1
12%
11.6
X/2
14%
3.88
X/X
12%
6.12
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
30%
1.9
2/X
5%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
18%
+8.8pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.2pp
51%
Away Win
60%
-8.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.0pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Lahti EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 64%
-4% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
0.65/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/0.93
-20% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +2%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
207 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 437 · 83%
13.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
16.6 Crosses 18.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Lahti
2W-0D-4L
AWAY HJK Helsinki
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.90 xG 2.04
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
236 Passes 464
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 39
10 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.04.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 4-0 HT 2-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
27.02.2024 FC Lahti FC Lahti 3-0 HT 2-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FLK
08.07.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 0-1 HT 0-1 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
07.06.2023 FC Lahti FC Lahti 1-2 HT 1-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
08.02.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 5-2 HT 1-1 FC Lahti FC Lahti FLK
17.05.2022 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 3-2 HT 0-1 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Lahti
2-1
AWAY HJK Helsinki
1.06 xG 2.36
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 26
5 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 9
224 Passes 463
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 35
6 Crosses 40
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Lahti vs HJK Helsinki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Lahti squeezed past HJK Helsinki 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was HJK Helsinki at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, FC Lahti had 34% of the ball to HJK Helsinki's 66%, shots finished 10-26, expected goals 1.06 to 2.36 — on chances, HJK Helsinki could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FC Lahti and 2.33 for HJK Helsinki.

What was the final score of FC Lahti vs HJK Helsinki?

FC Lahti 2-1 HJK Helsinki in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Lahti vs HJK Helsinki?

Before kick-off our model rated an HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split FC Lahti 27%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 51%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (HJK Helsinki), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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