Envigado 0-1 Fortaleza CEIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
41%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.52
Over 2.5
46%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
22%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-2.4pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.0pp
41%
Away Win
37%
+4.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
62%
-8.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
38%
+8.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.8pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Envigado EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 40%
+10% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.31/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/0.14
+29% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +140%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
302 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 78%
14.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
12.9 Crosses 9.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Envigado
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.76 xG 0.66
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
310 Passes 229
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 10
17 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
05.02.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 1-1 HT 1-1 Envigado Envigado KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Envigado
0-1
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
0.74 xG 0.84
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
229 Passes 446
77% Pass Accuracy 87%
12 Box Touches 12
9 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Envigado vs Fortaleza CEIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza CEIF edged past Envigado 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fortaleza CEIF as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Envigado had 36% of the ball to Fortaleza CEIF's 64%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 0.74 to 0.84.

What was the final score of Envigado vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Envigado 0-1 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Primera on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Envigado vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fortaleza CEIF win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Envigado 31%, draw 27%, Fortaleza CEIF 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortaleza CEIF), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fortaleza CEIF) ✓ Under 2.5
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