Polonia Warszawa 0-3 Arka Gdynia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒20:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.46
Draw
34%
3.28
Away
43%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.82
Over 2.5
41%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.76
No
57%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.22
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.65
6+ Goals
8%
15.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 32% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
19%
X/X
21%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
26%
-2.9pp
34%
Draw
27%
+6.7pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-3.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
51%
+7.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
49%
-7.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.8pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Arka Gdynia EU Bookmakers 51%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.24/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.19
+13% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -19%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
292 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polonia Warszawa
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Arka Gdynia
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.02.2024 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 0-3 HT 0-3 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
07.08.2023 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 2-3 HT 1-2 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonia Warszawa
0-3
AWAY Arka Gdynia
49% Ball Possession 51%
5 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Polonia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arka Gdynia ran out comfortable winners over Polonia Warszawa 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Arka Gdynia as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while under 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Polonia Warszawa had 49% of the ball to Arka Gdynia's 51%, shots finished 5-15.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Polonia Warszawa and 2.50 for Arka Gdynia.

What was the final score of Polonia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia?

Polonia Warszawa 0-3 Arka Gdynia in the Poland - 1st Division on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arka Gdynia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Polonia Warszawa 23%, draw 34%, Arka Gdynia 43%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arka Gdynia), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arka Gdynia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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