Polonia Warszawa 0-3 Arka Gdynia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.75
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
45%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.78
Over 2.5
51%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.03
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.77
6+ Goals
11%
16.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
23%
+2.4pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.4pp
45%
Away Win
52%
-6.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.7pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Arka Gdynia EU Bookmakers 56%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.18/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.05/1.24
+6% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -30%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
308 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polonia Warszawa
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Arka Gdynia
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 3
07.08.2023 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 2-3 HT 1-2 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonia Warszawa
0-3
AWAY Arka Gdynia
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Polonia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arka Gdynia ran out comfortable winners over Polonia Warszawa 3-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arka Gdynia as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Polonia Warszawa had 47% of the ball to Arka Gdynia's 53%, shots finished 8-17.

What was the final score of Polonia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia?

Polonia Warszawa 0-3 Arka Gdynia in the Poland - 1st Division on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arka Gdynia win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Polonia Warszawa 25%, draw 30%, Arka Gdynia 45%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arka Gdynia), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arka Gdynia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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