Katowice 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.87
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
44%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.26
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.61
6+ Goals
10%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 27% vs market 25.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.92
1/2
6%
24.0
1/X
6%
15.4
X/1
8%
8.83
X/2
17%
4.0
X/X
11%
4.92
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.31
2/X
8%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
22%
+8.2pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
44%
Away Win
53%
-8.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.9pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Katowice EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 57%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -8%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +36%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
268 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
Crosses 22.5
Yellow Cards 2.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Katowice
0-1
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
1.16 xG 0.71
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 1
375 Passes 247
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
31 Box Touches 12
32 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Katowice vs Rakow Czestochowa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rakow Czestochowa edged past Katowice 1-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Rakow Czestochowa as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Katowice had 59% of the ball to Rakow Czestochowa's 41%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.16 to 0.71 — the balance of chances actually favoured Katowice.

What was the final score of Katowice vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Katowice 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Katowice vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Katowice 30%, draw 25%, Rakow Czestochowa 44%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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