Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 Stal Mielec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 3 Aug 2024

Jagiellonia Bialystok
2-0 HT 1-0
Stal Mielec
📅03/08/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Stal Mielec Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.33
Over 2.5
55%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.93
4-5 Goals
27%
2.82
6+ Goals
10%
7.71
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.97
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.3
X/1
21%
4.0
X/2
9%
10.7
X/X
13%
6.33
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.3
2/2
9%
7.56
2/X
4%
15.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.3 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
60%
-8.0pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.6pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
39%
+6.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
61%
-6.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.4pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Jagiellonia Bialystok v Stal Mielec — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 22%
-9% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -11%
2.16/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.40
+23% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
393 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
22.7 Crosses 14.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Stal Mielec Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Stal Mielec
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.84 xG 1.05
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
408 Passes 314
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.05.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 3-2 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
03.11.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-0 HT 2-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
03.04.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 1-1 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
12.09.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-0 HT 3-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
04.03.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 1-1 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
11.09.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 HT 1-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 Stal Mielec — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
2-0
AWAY Stal Mielec
1.94 xG 0.14
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 2
409 Passes 339
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Stal Mielec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok got the better of Stal Mielec 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Jagiellonia Bialystok as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 54% of the ball to Stal Mielec's 46%, shots finished 13-3, expected goals 1.94 to 0.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.00 for Stal Mielec.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Stal Mielec?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 Stal Mielec in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Stal Mielec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 51%, draw 26%, Stal Mielec 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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