Stal Mielec 3-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 4 May 2024

Stal Mielec
3-2 HT 1-1
Jagiellonia Bialystok
📅04/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.13
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
51%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.38
Over 2.5
48%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.6
No
54%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
5.02
2-3 Goals
39%
1.96
4-5 Goals
24%
2.75
6+ Goals
8%
7.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.02 — our 29% vs market 15.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
7.29
1/2
5%
20.1
1/X
5%
15.35
X/1
14%
10.55
X/2
25%
4.07
X/X
13%
6.38
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
21%
1.99
2/X
5%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
21%
+5.2pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.7pp
51%
Away Win
58%
-6.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
38%
+13.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
62%
-13.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
58%
-12.8pp
54%
BTTS No
42%
+12.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stal Mielec v Jagiellonia Bialystok — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 62%
+7% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.14/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.00
+1% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -22%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
313 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 401 · 80%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
17.5 Crosses –
2.1 Yellow Cards –

Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stal Mielec
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.27 xG 1.78
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
338 Passes 366
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.11.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-0 HT 2-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
03.04.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 1-1 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
12.09.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-0 HT 3-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
04.03.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 1-1 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
11.09.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 HT 1-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
21.04.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-3 HT 2-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL

Stal Mielec 3-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stal Mielec
3-2
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
0.79 xG 2.40
31% Ball Possession 69%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
190 Passes 585
66% Pass Accuracy 88%
17 Box Touches 30
10 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stal Mielec edged past Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Jagiellonia Bialystok at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Stal Mielec had 31% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 69%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.79 to 2.40 — on chances, Jagiellonia Bialystok could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Stal Mielec and 2.33 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Stal Mielec 3-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated an Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Stal Mielec 26%, draw 23%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 51%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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