Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Rakow Czestochowa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 4 May 2024

Zaglebie Lubin
2-0 HT 1-0
Rakow Czestochowa
📅04/05/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Zaglebie Lubin vs Rakow Czestochowa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
51%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.69
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.28
6+ Goals
10%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.69 — our 26% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.32
1/2
10%
22.7
1/X
7%
14.7
X/1
8%
8.52
X/2
17%
4.17
X/X
9%
5.21
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.34
2/X
9%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
24%
+0.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
51%
Away Win
52%
-1.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.7pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Zaglebie Lubin v Rakow Czestochowa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 56%
-9% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -8%
1.35/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/0.80
-23% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +45%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
271 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 80%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.1
22.1 Crosses 22.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Zaglebie Lubin vs Rakow Czestochowa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.17 xG 2.17
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
289 Passes 342
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 37
12 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
05.11.2023 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 5-0 HT 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
27.05.2023 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 1-1 HT 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
12.11.2022 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 HT 0-2 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
14.05.2022 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 HT 0-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
27.11.2021 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 4-0 HT 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
21.02.2021 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 HT 1-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL

Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Rakow Czestochowa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
2-0
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
1.18 xG 1.11
34% Ball Possession 66%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 9
205 Passes 480
68% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 29
8 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Zaglebie Lubin vs Rakow Czestochowa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zaglebie Lubin got the better of Rakow Czestochowa 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Rakow Czestochowa at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Zaglebie Lubin had 34% of the ball to Rakow Czestochowa's 66%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.18 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 2.33 for Rakow Czestochowa.

What was the final score of Zaglebie Lubin vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Rakow Czestochowa in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zaglebie Lubin vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Zaglebie Lubin 24%, draw 25%, Rakow Czestochowa 51%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✓ BTTS No
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