Lech Poznan 3-1 Lechia Gdansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 3 Aug 2024

Lech Poznan
3-1 HT 3-0
Lechia Gdansk
📅03/08/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Lech Poznan vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.43
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.76
No
56%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.51
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.9
6+ Goals
10%
8.39
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.51 — our 28% vs market 17.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.75
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.9
X/1
15%
3.66
X/2
7%
13.35
X/X
11%
6.74
2/1
10%
20.95
2/2
8%
10.1
2/X
5%
18.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
66%
-9.2pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.9pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+6.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.2pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lech Poznan v Lechia Gdansk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 18%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -12%
1.83/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.98
+3% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
404 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 73%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
22.0 Crosses 16.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Lech Poznan vs Lechia Gdansk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.99 xG 0.56
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
362 Passes 308
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.03.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 5-0 HT 2-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
31.08.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-3 HT 0-2 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
20.02.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
22.08.2021 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 1-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
20.04.2021 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-0 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
30.11.2020 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-1 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL

Lech Poznan 3-1 Lechia Gdansk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
3-1
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
2.17 xG 0.50
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
469 Passes 318
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
31 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Lechia Gdansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan got the better of Lechia Gdansk 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lech Poznan as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 57% of the ball to Lechia Gdansk's 43%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 2.17 to 0.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Lech Poznan and 0.17 for Lechia Gdansk.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Lechia Gdansk?

Lech Poznan 3-1 Lechia Gdansk in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Lechia Gdansk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 56%, draw 23%, Lechia Gdansk 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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