Sporting CP 3-4 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Super Cup, 3 Aug 2024

Sporting CP
3-4 HT 3-1
Porto
📅03/08/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Portugal - Super Cup – 2024/2025

Sporting CP vs Porto Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.75
No
41%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.13
2-3 Goals
46%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.75
6+ Goals
13%
15.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.01
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
12.65
X/1
13%
4.8
X/2
10%
6.84
X/X
12%
4.3
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
12%
4.98
2/X
7%
13.05
Value flag · 1/X at 12.65 — our 11% vs market 5.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-2.8pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.4pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.3pp
59%
BTTS Yes
53%
+5.8pp
41%
BTTS No
47%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting CP v Porto — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Sporting CP vs Porto Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Porto
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.15 xG 1.90
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
348 Passes 328
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 15
5 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
26.05.2024 Porto Porto 2-1 HT 1-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POK
28.04.2024 Porto Porto 2-2 HT 2-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
18.12.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 1-0 Porto Porto POR
12.02.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-2 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
28.01.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 0-2 HT 0-1 Porto Porto PORLC
20.08.2022 Porto Porto 3-0 HT 1-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR

Sporting CP 3-4 Porto — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
3-4
AWAY Porto
1.21 xG 1.63
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
573 Passes 365
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
34 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto squeezed past Sporting CP 4-3 away from home. It was 3-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting CP at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sporting CP had 59% of the ball to Porto's 41%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.21 to 1.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sporting CP and 1.83 for Porto.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Porto?

Sporting CP 3-4 Porto in the Portugal - Super Cup on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 41%, draw 30%, Porto 29%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sporting CP) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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