Mura 1-0 Celje — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 3 Aug 2024

Mura
1-0 HT 1-0
Celje
📅03/08/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Slovenia - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Mura vs Celje Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.29
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
44%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.65
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.31
6+ Goals
11%
11.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.65 — our 28% vs market 22.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
27%
+4.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.3pp
44%
Away Win
48%
-3.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.5pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mura v Celje — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mura EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Celje EU Bookmakers 52%
+6% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +9%
1.37/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/0.70
+39% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +43%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
295 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.6

Mura vs Celje Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mura
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Celje
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
06.04.2024 Mura Mura 1-3 HT 1-2 Celje Celje SLVN
11.02.2024 Celje Celje 4-1 HT 2-1 Mura Mura SLVN
30.09.2023 Mura Mura 0-2 HT 0-0 Celje Celje SLVN
30.07.2023 Celje Celje 5-0 HT 2-0 Mura Mura SLVN
10.04.2023 Mura Mura 0-2 HT 0-1 Celje Celje SLVN
11.02.2023 Celje Celje 2-1 HT 1-0 Mura Mura SLVN

Mura 1-0 Celje — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mura
1-0
AWAY Celje
33% Ball Possession 67%
3 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mura vs Celje
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mura edged past Celje 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Celje at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Mura had 33% of the ball to Celje's 67%, shots finished 3-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celje led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Mura and 3.00 for Celje.

What was the final score of Mura vs Celje?

Mura 1-0 Celje in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mura vs Celje?

Before kick-off our model rated an Celje win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Mura 32%, draw 24%, Celje 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Celje) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Celje) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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3 Aug 2024
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