Mura 1-3 Celje — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 6 Apr 2024

Mura
1-3 HT 1-2
Celje
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Slovenia - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Mura vs Celje Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.4
Draw
29%
4.19
Away
48%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.76
2-3 Goals
43%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.24
6+ Goals
8%
11.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 27% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
16%
X/X
21%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
15%
+7.3pp
29%
Draw
21%
+8.4pp
48%
Away Win
64%
-15.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.3pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mura v Celje — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mura EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Celje EU Bookmakers 69%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.33/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.24/1.06
+38% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -5%
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
328 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 462 · 89%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.6

Mura vs Celje Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mura
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Celje
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.02.2024 Celje Celje 4-1 HT 2-1 Mura Mura SLVN
30.09.2023 Mura Mura 0-2 HT 0-0 Celje Celje SLVN
30.07.2023 Celje Celje 5-0 HT 2-0 Mura Mura SLVN
10.04.2023 Mura Mura 0-2 HT 0-1 Celje Celje SLVN
11.02.2023 Celje Celje 2-1 HT 1-0 Mura Mura SLVN
09.11.2022 Celje Celje 2-1 HT 1-0 Mura Mura SLVNK

Mura 1-3 Celje — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mura
1-3
AWAY Celje
39% Ball Possession 61%
15 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mura vs Celje
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celje got the better of Mura 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Celje as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Mura had 39% of the ball to Celje's 61%, shots finished 15-18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celje led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Mura and 2.83 for Celje.

What was the final score of Mura vs Celje?

Mura 1-3 Celje in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mura vs Celje?

Before kick-off our model rated an Celje win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Mura 23%, draw 29%, Celje 48%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celje), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Celje) ✓ Over 2.5
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