Mirassol FC 3-2 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 3 Aug 2025

Mirassol FC
3-2 HT 0-0
Vasco da Gama
📅03/08/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Mirassol FC vs Vasco da Gama Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
21%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.67
Over 2.5
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.67
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.11
6+ Goals
9%
20.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.56
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
25%
4.5
X/2
8%
8.56
X/X
8%
4.06
2/1
10%
28.0
2/2
8%
7.03
2/X
11%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
49%
+4.9pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.1pp
21%
Away Win
23%
-2.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.2pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mirassol FC v Vasco da Gama — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 26%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -10%
1.06/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.37
-28% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 75%
12.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
12.0 Crosses 20.7
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.6

Mirassol FC 3-2 Vasco da Gama — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mirassol FC
3-2
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.14 xG 1.30
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
313 Passes 552
83% Pass Accuracy 90%
15 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mirassol FC vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mirassol FC nicked a narrow win over Vasco da Gama 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Mirassol FC as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Mirassol FC had 39% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 61%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.14 to 1.30.

What was the final score of Mirassol FC vs Vasco da Gama?

Mirassol FC 3-2 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 03/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mirassol FC vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mirassol FC win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Mirassol FC 54%, draw 26%, Vasco da Gama 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mirassol FC) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mirassol FC) ✗ Under 2.5
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