Fluminense 1-0 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 3 Aug 2025

📅03/08/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.56
Over 2.5
47%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.13
No
51%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.32
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
4.85
6+ Goals
9%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.52
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.1
X/1
18%
4.1
X/2
8%
8.42
X/X
13%
3.99
2/1
9%
29.5
2/2
11%
7.5
2/X
6%
16.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
51%
+0.4pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.4pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+1.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
60%
-7.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
40%
+7.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
43%
+6.4pp
51%
BTTS No
57%
-6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +12%
1.44/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.54
+3% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
372 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 79%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
22.5 Crosses 13.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Gremio
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.57 xG 1.43
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
497 Passes 273
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
02.11.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 2-2 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
21.08.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 2-0 Gremio Gremio LKU
14.08.2024 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense LKU
30.06.2024 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
07.12.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-3 HT 1-2 Gremio Gremio BR1
13.08.2023 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 2-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
1-0
AWAY Gremio
1.56 xG 0.35
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 4
371 Passes 279
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense squeezed past Gremio 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fluminense as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Fluminense had 56% of the ball to Gremio's 44%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 1.56 to 0.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fluminense's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fluminense and 1.83 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Gremio?

Fluminense 1-0 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 03/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 51%, draw 26%, Gremio 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fluminense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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