Gremio 2-1 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 14 Aug 2024

📅14/08/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
33%
2.83
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.36
Over 2.5
32%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.53
No
62%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
43%
1.85
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
13%
7.61
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.82
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X
9%
16.45
X/1
12%
3.91
X/2
14%
7.99
X/X
15%
3.15
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
10%
7.58
2/X
9%
17.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-7.4pp
33%
Draw
32%
+1.5pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+5.9pp
68%
Under 2.5
70%
-2.0pp
32%
Over 2.5
30%
+2.0pp
38%
BTTS Yes
36%
+2.8pp
62%
BTTS No
64%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 24%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +22%
0.77/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.29
-69% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +93%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
347 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 72%
10.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
12.3 Crosses 11.8
3.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Fluminense
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.68 xG 1.08
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
306 Passes 512
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
24 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.06.2024 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
07.12.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-3 HT 1-2 Gremio Gremio BR1
13.08.2023 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 2-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
10.11.2021 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
18.07.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 0-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
09.11.2020 Fluminense Fluminense 0-1 HT 0-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
2-1
AWAY Fluminense
1.34 xG 1.18
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
298 Passes 482
85% Pass Accuracy 90%
26 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio edged past Fluminense 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 33% / 27% — and on the day Gremio made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gremio had 40% of the ball to Fluminense's 60%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.34 to 1.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gremio and 0.50 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Fluminense?

Gremio 2-1 Fluminense in the Copa Libertadores on 14/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Gremio 40%, draw 33%, Fluminense 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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