Gremio 1-0 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 30 Jun 2024

📅30/06/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.67
Over 2.5
36%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.95
No
60%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
38%
2.72
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.3
6+ Goals
7%
21.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 38% vs market 30.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.57
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.75
X/1
22%
4.19
X/2
7%
8.21
X/X
14%
4.09
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
10%
6.66
2/X
8%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-5.6pp
31%
Draw
28%
+3.0pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+2.6pp
64%
Under 2.5
56%
+7.8pp
36%
Over 2.5
44%
-7.8pp
40%
BTTS Yes
47%
-7.1pp
60%
BTTS No
53%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 26%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -13%
1.56/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.56
+11% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
368 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 78%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
16.9 Crosses 16.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Fluminense
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.71 xG 1.07
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
315 Passes 502
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
24 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-3 HT 1-2 Gremio Gremio BR1
13.08.2023 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 2-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
10.11.2021 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
18.07.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 0-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
09.11.2020 Fluminense Fluminense 0-1 HT 0-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
10.08.2020 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
1-0
AWAY Fluminense
1.05 xG 0.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
347 Passes 419
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
28 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio edged past Fluminense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Gremio had 47% of the ball to Fluminense's 53%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.05 to 0.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gremio and 0.50 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Fluminense?

Gremio 1-0 Fluminense in the Brazil - Serie A on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Gremio 43%, draw 31%, Fluminense 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
30 Jun 2024
00:30 Vasco da Gama vs Botafogo Analysis →
00:30 Cuiaba vs Bragantino Analysis →
17:00 Atletico Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense Analysis →
22:00 Fortaleza vs Juventude Analysis →
22:00 Sao Paulo vs Bahia Analysis →