Fortaleza 2-1 Juventude — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 30 Jun 2024

📅30/06/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.67
Over 2.5
36%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.09
No
62%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.72
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.3
6+ Goals
8%
21.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 38% vs market 30.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.13
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.45
X/1 EV+ ✗
27%
3.64
X/2
6%
10.4
X/X
14%
4.54
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
10%
9.09
2/X
7%
17.55
Value flag · X/1 at 3.64 — our 27% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-5.0pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.6pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.4pp
64%
Under 2.5
56%
+7.7pp
36%
Over 2.5
44%
-7.7pp
38%
BTTS Yes
44%
-5.8pp
62%
BTTS No
56%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventude EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -10%
1.58/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.55
-9% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
383 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 75%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
24.2 Crosses 15.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Juventude
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.39 xG 1.18
49% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
339 Passes 359
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.09.2022 Juventude Juventude 1-1 HT 0-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
29.05.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-1 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
04.12.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-0 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
22.08.2021 Juventude Juventude 1-1 HT 0-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
15.11.2018 Fortaleza Fortaleza 4-1 HT 3-1 Juventude Juventude BR2
28.07.2018 Juventude Juventude 0-3 HT 0-2 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
2-1
AWAY Juventude
2.84 xG 1.12
38% Ball Possession 62%
19 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
216 Passes 404
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Juventude
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza nicked a narrow win over Juventude 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fortaleza as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fortaleza had 38% of the ball to Juventude's 62%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 2.84 to 1.12 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fortaleza's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortaleza had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Fortaleza and 0.67 for Juventude.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Juventude?

Fortaleza 2-1 Juventude in the Brazil - Serie A on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Juventude?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 52%, draw 27%, Juventude 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortaleza) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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