Sao Paulo 3-1 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 30 Jun 2024

Sao Paulo
3-1 HT 2-0
Bahia
📅30/06/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Sao Paulo vs Bahia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.66
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.41
6+ Goals
10%
22.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.66 — our 33% vs market 31.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.67
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.6
X/1
17%
4.12
X/2
10%
7.55
X/X
14%
4.22
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
12%
6.2
2/X
6%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-6.3pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.6pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sao Paulo v Bahia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.21/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.43
-14% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / -23%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
377 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
23.2 Crosses 17.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Sao Paulo vs Bahia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Bahia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.54 xG 0.96
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
504 Passes 249
88% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.11.2023 Bahia Bahia 0-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
30.07.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
08.11.2021 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
11.07.2021 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
29.11.2020 Bahia Bahia 1-3 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
21.08.2020 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1

Sao Paulo 3-1 Bahia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
3-1
AWAY Bahia
1.21 xG 1.04
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
350 Passes 554
85% Pass Accuracy 91%
14 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo beat Bahia 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sao Paulo as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 41% of the ball to Bahia's 59%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.21 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.50 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Bahia?

Sao Paulo 3-1 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 42%, draw 29%, Bahia 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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