San Lorenzo 1-1 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 14 Aug 2024

📅14/08/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.8
Draw
30%
2.77
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.36
Over 2.5
32%
2.98
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.44
No
62%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
1.78
2-3 Goals
37%
1.93
4-5 Goals
16%
8.23
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.65
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.1
X/1
15%
5.32
X/2
14%
4.96
X/X
19%
2.99
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
12%
4.22
2/X
5%
16.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
33%
+5.2pp
31%
Draw
33%
-2.5pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-2.6pp
68%
Under 2.5
70%
-2.1pp
32%
Over 2.5
30%
+2.1pp
38%
BTTS Yes
37%
+0.9pp
62%
BTTS No
63%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Lorenzo EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -7%
1.04/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/0.90
-10% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +0%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 77%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
19.9 Crosses 14.1
5.4 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Lorenzo
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
232 Passes 434
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
09.05.2018 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo CON CSA
12.04.2018 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro CON CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Lorenzo
1-1
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.27 xG 0.34
30% Ball Possession 70%
9 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 3
172 Passes 537
65% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 5
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH San Lorenzo vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Lorenzo and Atletico Mineiro shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 31% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (68%) landed while no to both teams scoring (62%) missed.

On the day, San Lorenzo had 30% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 70%, shots finished 9-6, expected goals 0.27 to 0.34.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, San Lorenzo had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for San Lorenzo and 0.00 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of San Lorenzo vs Atletico Mineiro?

San Lorenzo 1-1 Atletico Mineiro in the Copa Libertadores on 14/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Lorenzo vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Lorenzo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split San Lorenzo 38%, draw 31%, Atletico Mineiro 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (San Lorenzo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (San Lorenzo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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