Fluminense 2-1 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 21 Aug 2024

📅21/08/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.38
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
5.05
6+ Goals
10%
30.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.62
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.6
X/1
17%
4.05
X/2
9%
8.13
X/X
14%
3.81
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
11%
6.99
2/X
7%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-1.4pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.6pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+2.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.4pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 26%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +29%
2.07/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/0.86
+75% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / +130%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
391 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
16.0 Crosses 8.0
3.1 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Gremio
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.18 xG 1.61
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
510 Passes 302
89% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.08.2024 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense LKU
30.06.2024 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
07.12.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-3 HT 1-2 Gremio Gremio BR1
13.08.2023 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 2-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
10.11.2021 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
18.07.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 0-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
2-1
AWAY Gremio
1.45 xG 1.11
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
336 Passes 281
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
33 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 14
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense nicked a narrow win over Gremio 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fluminense as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fluminense had 53% of the ball to Gremio's 47%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 1.45 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fluminense and 1.67 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Gremio?

Fluminense 2-1 Gremio in the Copa Libertadores on 21/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 47%, draw 27%, Gremio 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fluminense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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