Atletico Mineiro 1-0 San Lorenzo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 21 Aug 2024

📅21/08/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
22%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.6
No
60%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.28
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
5.37
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.94
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
20.65
X/1
22%
3.26
X/2
8%
13.2
X/X
11%
4.28
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
9%
13.0
2/X
9%
22.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
62%
-9.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
22%
Away Win
13%
+8.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.8pp
40%
BTTS Yes
34%
+5.5pp
60%
BTTS No
66%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY San Lorenzo EU Bookmakers 16%
-6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.71/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.28/1.57
+7% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -98% / +90%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
389 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 75%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.1
21.2 Crosses 10.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
0W-2D-1L
AWAY San Lorenzo
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.34 xG 0.27
65% Ball Possession 35%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
468 Passes 212
82% Pass Accuracy 68%
9 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
14.08.2024 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro LKU
09.05.2018 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo CON CSA
12.04.2018 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro CON CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
1-0
AWAY San Lorenzo
0.98 xG 0.87
64% Ball Possession 36%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 7
324 Passes 123
76% Pass Accuracy 53%
12 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs San Lorenzo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro squeezed past San Lorenzo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 64% of the ball to San Lorenzo's 36%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 0.98 to 0.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, San Lorenzo led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 0.67 for San Lorenzo.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs San Lorenzo?

Atletico Mineiro 1-0 San Lorenzo in the Copa Libertadores on 21/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs San Lorenzo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 52%, draw 26%, San Lorenzo 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Mineiro), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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