CA Sarmiento 2-1 Independiente Rivadavia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 3 Aug 2026

📅03/08/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
34%
2.94
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.59
Over 2.5
37%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.45
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
17%
4.6
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.45 — our 34% vs market 33.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.2
1/2
5%
33.5
1/X
7%
13.3
X/1
11%
5.76
X/2
11%
5.56
X/X
21%
3.77
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
19%
3.96
2/X
7%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-3.6pp
34%
Draw
31%
+3.3pp
35%
Away Win
35%
+0.3pp
63%
Under 2.5
59%
+4.4pp
37%
Over 2.5
41%
-4.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.5pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Sarmiento EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Rivadavia EU Bookmakers 38%
+1% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.28/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.17
+14% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / +3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
271 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
19.6 Crosses 18.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Sarmiento
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Independiente Rivadavia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.54 xG 0.59
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
230 Passes 197
69% Pass Accuracy 67%
15 Box Touches 13
12 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.02.2026 Independiente Rivadavia Independiente Rivadavia 2-1 HT 1-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
26.05.2024 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Rivadavia Independiente Rivadavia ARJ
06.10.2014 Independiente Rivadavia Independiente Rivadavia 0-2 HT 0-1 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJPBN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Sarmiento
2-1
AWAY Independiente Rivadavia
0.65 xG 1.54
9 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
120 Passes 373
20 Box Touches 19
8 Crosses 31
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH CA Sarmiento vs Independiente Rivadavia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Sarmiento squeezed past Independiente Rivadavia 2-1.

Our pre-match split (31% / 34% / 35%) promised a tight game; CA Sarmiento found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 0.65 to 1.54 — on chances, Independiente Rivadavia could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Independiente Rivadavia led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for CA Sarmiento and 1.00 for Independiente Rivadavia.

What was the final score of CA Sarmiento vs Independiente Rivadavia?

CA Sarmiento 2-1 Independiente Rivadavia in the Argentina - Premier League on 03/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Sarmiento vs Independiente Rivadavia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Rivadavia win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split CA Sarmiento 31%, draw 34%, Independiente Rivadavia 35%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Rivadavia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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