Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒01:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.52
Over 2.5
43%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.33
No
57%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.32
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
5.27
6+ Goals
8%
33.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.17
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.65
X/1
17%
3.51
X/2
6%
10.5
X/X
13%
4.09
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
7%
9.82
2/X
6%
18.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
57%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
19%
Away Win
17%
+2.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
39%
+4.3pp
57%
BTTS No
61%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 20%
+7% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
1.76/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.51/1.60
+55% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
360 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 78%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.8
19.8 Crosses 11.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.87 xG 1.34
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
464 Passes 241
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
21.07.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 2-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
20.08.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
16.04.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-2 HT 1-2 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
24.01.2021 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 3-2 HT 2-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
05.10.2020 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 4-1 HT 4-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
03.10.2019 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-2 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
2-1
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.26 xG 0.57
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
499 Passes 267
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 13
13 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro squeezed past Vasco da Gama 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 62% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 38%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.26 to 0.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vasco da Gama led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.50 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama?

Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Cup on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 55%, draw 26%, Vasco da Gama 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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