Flamengo 1-0 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒03:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.51
Over 2.5
37%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.4
No
62%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.22
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
17%
5.57
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.3
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.3
X/1
23%
3.58
X/2
7%
9.65
X/X
14%
3.91
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
8%
9.05
2/X
8%
18.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
55%
-4.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.2pp
63%
Under 2.5
62%
+0.7pp
37%
Over 2.5
38%
-0.8pp
38%
BTTS Yes
38%
+0.9pp
62%
BTTS No
62%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians EU Bookmakers 21%
+8% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.85/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.33
-9% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / +30%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
378 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
22.0 Crosses 14.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Flamengo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Corinthians
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.94 xG 1.20
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
428 Passes 344
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 2-1 HT 1-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
11.05.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 2-0 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
08.10.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 1-1 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
21.05.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 1-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
03.11.2022 Flamengo Flamengo 1-2 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
20.10.2022 Flamengo Flamengo 1-1 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
1-0
AWAY Corinthians
2.00 xG 0.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
413 Passes 287
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
29 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Corinthians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo nicked a narrow win over Corinthians 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Flamengo had 56% of the ball to Corinthians's 44%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 2.00 to 0.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Flamengo's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Flamengo and 1.00 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Corinthians?

Flamengo 1-0 Corinthians in the Brazil - Cup on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 50%, draw 29%, Corinthians 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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